The Montecito Resort & Casino had Sam call this morning while I was still snacking on my Ho-hos for breakfast. She said that the all the Whales are due in very soon for 3-day weekend betting on Twitter Fight Club 2012. Asked me to set aside my grueling game theory work and regular work for the SOS to make the line. @caidid, if anybody asks please send them to see Sam as the House is giving me a cut. I’ll bet your local bookie is reeling from how all of my favorites won yesterday. Obligatory warning if you are betting on TFC you may have a gambling problem (nah, you are a big nerd whose alma mater isn’t left in the NCAA.).
No changes at the top of the board
3-2 @texasinafrica – when the overall number one seed (@slaughteram) was bounced unceremoniously from the tournament, Professor Seay easily took the lead as the odds on favorite. She has the youth and talent of that Kentucky team and the experience of the Kansas team. If only she could get rid of that ugly tablecloth (some call it the Republic of Texas flag) on her avatar, then she would likely be a lead pipe cinch. If she loses, it will be because of that avatar. Finally, she was the first player to ever get over 200 popular votes in a Twitter Fight Club match-up. She has over 7,800 followers and they all seem to really like her. Update: The line would’ve moved lower for her, if she wasn’t facing the #2 overall betting favorite in @jeffemanuel.
3-1 @jeffemanuel – he is witty and conservative. As a contributor to Redstate.org, he has a huge following of over 5,000 followers on Twitter. He just needs to motivate a small portion of them to vote a few times and he will have an easy path to the championship. He also is a fellow soldier and graduate student (although he only goes to Harvard). He is also the most read conservative blogger on Capitol Hill and those folks know a few things about how to win balloting contests (hint: you should blog about wanting to win TFC12, so the politicos can do what they do best – campaign). He also has an above average follower-to-follow ratio of 18.2 to 1. Update: Same applies to Jeff as it does to Seay, his line would’ve gotten much better if he wasn’t facing her.
7-2 @will_mccants – He will have to continue to outperform his average follower-to-following ratio of 10.7 to 1. That is match that is likely to go down to the wire and may hinge on the vote of the so called “experts.” Furhermore, Will must make more direct appeals to the judges (whisper: I hear they like Ho-hos like me.) in order to do better than he did yesterday against a long shot @AzmatZahra. The good news is that today’s opponent, @smsaideman, has an abysmally low 6.2 to 1 F2F ratio.
8-1 @stcolumbia – Dan’s line significantly improves by advancing here. Still the underlying facts remain, he is young and has megauploads of college age followers. He has a paltry 1.7 to 1 follower-to-follow ratio. His youthful energy and awe of the judges really works in his favor. When he faces either @texasinafrica or @jeffemanuel though, he is likely to be overwhelmed.
12-1 THE FIELD – This is a strong play with @dandrezner and @joshuafoust still in it as part of the field.
INSIDER NOTE: I’m 12 out of 13 in matches so far by taking the favorite. The payoff on @texasinafrica is almost worth setting her aside in actual bettering, but I think I may lay down two big Washingtons on her anyway..